World Cup 2026: Top 10 Favorites Revealed — Spain Leads the Race, France Close Behind, Argentina Only 4th, Brazil Falls to 7th

The excitement is building as the 2026 World Cup draw took place at 1 a.m. (Beijing time) on December 6. With 48 teams participating across the USA, Canada, and Mexico, OPTA’s supercomputer has already run thousands of simulations to predict the Top 10 favorites to win the trophy—and Spain emerges as the strongest contender.

Based on the current FIFA rankings, Spain is ranked No.1 in the world, followed by Argentina and France. OPTA’s model aligns with these standings: Luis de la Fuente’s Spain is projected as the most likely champion.

As the 2024 EURO winners, Spain boasts young stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. Their tactical stability, well-balanced system, and dominant World Cup qualifying performance put them ahead of the pack. Their winning probability is 17.0%, ranking first overall.

Right behind them is France, led by Kylian Mbappé. With a 14.1% chance, Les Bleus remain a powerhouse after winning the 2018 World Cup and finishing runners-up in 2022. With Mbappé, Tchouaméni, Camavinga, Saliba and more, Didier Deschamps still commands an elite squad.

England ranks 3rd (11.8%). The Three Lions topped their qualifying group with a perfect 8–0 record, becoming the first European team to book a ticket to 2026. With Kane, Bellingham, Rice, and Reece James, England hopes to break a 60-year drought.

Surprisingly, defending champions Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, only rank 4th (8.7%). The core remains similar to 2022, but Messi has aged four more years and Di María has retired, lowering OPTA’s expectations.

Germany sits 5th (7.1%), followed by Portugal in 6th (6.6%).

Even with Carlo Ancelotti joining as coach and a roster full of talent, Brazil is given just a 5.6% chance, ranking 7th.

Perhaps the most exciting story: Norway, led by Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, returns to the World Cup after 28 years and surprisingly enters the Top 10 with a 2.3% chance.

OPTA Prediction: Top 10 Favorites to Win the 2026 World Cup

1. Spain — 17.0%
2. France — 14.1%
3. England — 11.8%
4. Argentina — 8.7%
5. Germany — 7.1%
6. Portugal — 6.6%
7. Brazil — 5.6%
8. Netherlands — 5.2%
9. Norway — 2.3%
10. Colombia — 2.0%