Black swan events keep occurring; gold prices briefly hit a new record high.

(New York, Jan 13)
Concerns over potential supply disruptions tied to the Iran situation have lifted crude prices. Global oil benchmarks rose on Monday (Jan 12) to a seven-week high and extended gains into Tuesday. Safe-haven demand also surged, sending gold and silver sharply higher and to fresh record highs — with gold briefly breaking above USD 4,600 per ounce — after reports that the U.S. Department of Justice launched an investigation into the Federal Reserve, reigniting worries about central bank independence.

As uncertainty deepened around the Trump administration’s criminal probe involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell, investors rotated into safe-haven assets, pushing both gold and silver to new peaks.

Spot gold closed Monday up 1.95% at USD 4,597.51/oz, after hitting an intraday record of USD 4,630.21. As of 10:50am Malaysia time, gold futures eased slightly to USD 4,589.80/oz.

Silver jumped 6.6% and touched a record high of USD 86.24 per troy ounce before paring gains to close at USD 84.97/oz.

Société Générale’s Head of Global Commodities Research, Michael Haigh, said the backdrop supporting gold is unlikely to reverse in the near term. Gold surged more than 64% last year, marking its best annual performance since 1979, while silver posted its strongest yearly gain on record at 146.8%.

Copper spikes, then cools

Copper rose alongside the broader commodities rally but gave back part of its gains. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), benchmark copper jumped as much as 2.5% to USD 13,323/tonne before settling up 1.6% at USD 13,209.50. On COMEX, copper briefly moved above USD 6 per pound, though the rally later moderated.

Other LME base metals also pulled back after broad advances; aluminium and tin both reached their highest levels since 2022. ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said volatility and a weight rebalancing in a major commodity index contributed to the pullback, while underlying fundamentals remained intact: tight supply and strong demand expectations have supported metals since the start of the year.

Oil capped by oversupply narrative

Iran said on Monday that communication channels with the U.S. remain open, as Trump weighs a response to a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests — widely seen as one of the most serious challenges to Iran’s clerical leadership since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

According to foreign data, Iran’s floating oil storage has hit a record level, equivalent to about 50 days of production. With sanctions curbing demand — including reduced purchases by China — Tehran has been seeking to shield supply from the risk of U.S. action.

At the same time, markets are assessing the possibility of higher Venezuelan supply, which has limited the upside in oil. Investors are also watching risks of disruptions from Russia, including Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure and the prospect of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian energy.

As of 10:45am Malaysia time, Brent futures were at USD 63.92/bbl, down USD 0.29 or 0.45%, while WTI futures were at USD 59.57/bbl, up USD 0.25 or 0.42%.

Goldman Sachs said in a report that oil prices could trend lower this year as new supply adds to market surplus, although geopolitical risks linked to Russia, Venezuela and Iran are likely to keep volatility elevated.