Wall Street Debates: Is the Golden Age of Sneakers Over?

As 2026 began, Bank of America dropped a bomb on the sneaker industry. Analyst Thierry Cota warned that the long-running boom for sneakers might be ending. Over the past two decades, sneakers have evolved from specialized athletic gear to daily casual wear, increasing from less than 25% to over 50% of global footwear sales, peaking during the pandemic. With this structural shift largely complete, annual growth is projected to slow from around 9% to 4%-5%. Adidas was even “double downgraded,” sending its stock down more than 7% in a single day.

The reaction was swift. Industry veteran Matt Powell dismissed the claim on social media: “No evidence supports this.” Beth Goldstein from Circana noted that sneakers account for about 60% of U.S. footwear sales, still growing 4% as of November 2025, while fashion shoes declined 3%. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal described the market as stabilizing, not ending. UBS echoed optimism, citing a global health-conscious consumer trend driving a new growth phase.

The data shows slowing growth does not equal collapse. StockX reported that the best-selling 2025 loafer was New Balance 1906L, highlighting consumers’ preference for functional style. CEO Greg Schwartz emphasized that future winners will focus on scarcity, storytelling, and community, not just volume.

The market landscape is shifting: Puma posted losses, On experienced volatility, and Asics reached record profits in the running segment. In China, the sneaker market grew to 598.9 billion RMB in 2025, projected to reach 896.3 billion by 2030. Penetration is approaching mature market levels, signaling a move from expansion to stock competition.

In short, sneakers are not disappearing. The growth era has ended, and the focus is now on depth, precision, and brand value. This debate is prompting industry players to rethink strategy: giants optimize marketing efficiency, challengers dominate niche segments, and distributors diversify. The sneaker industry’s next chapter has quietly begun.