Full Cancellation of PV Export Tax Rebates Spurs Export Rush; Some Overseas Markets May Vanish

On January 8, China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting April 1, 2026, VAT export rebates for photovoltaic (PV) products will be fully canceled. For battery products, the rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and fully eliminated from January 1, 2027. The announcement covers 249 PV products and 22 battery products.

VAT export rebates refund taxes already paid in production and circulation, and their cancellation is expected to impact some overseas PV projects. Zhuang Yinghong, head of Boda New Energy, warned that in countries where project internal rates of return are below 6%, the rebate cancellation could reduce returns by about 2.25%, causing some projects to become unfeasible.

Leading PV manufacturers, including Trina Solar, LONGi Green Energy, and JinkoSolar, have already raised export prices. Analysts predict a surge in exports from January to March 2026, as smaller firms rush to ship before the rebate ends.

Zhuang noted that small companies with limited clients face greater risk, while leading enterprises benefit from diversified markets and capacities. The industry expects that the rebate cancellation will accelerate cost optimization and overseas market strategies, while reducing low-price competition.

Overall, some overseas markets may experience short-term contraction, but global demand for PV remains robust, signaling a shift toward efficiency and structural optimization in the industry.