With just one day to go until the U23 Asian Cup final, China’s biggest weakness has been exposed—making the title challenge significantly tougher.

Over the next two days, the U23 AFC Asian Cup will reach its dramatic conclusion with the third-place playoff and the final. On Friday night at 11:00 p.m., Vietnam will face South Korea in the battle for third place. Then, on Saturday night at 11:00 p.m., China will take on Japan in the championship decider. Both matches will be broadcast live on CCTV-5.

Before the semifinals kicked off, Vietnam head coach Kim Sang-sik had hoped for an all-out dream scenario in which Vietnam and South Korea would meet in the final. Reality, however, proved far tougher. South Korea narrowly lost 0–1 to Japan, while Vietnam were defeated 0–3 by China, leaving both teams to compete for third place instead.

On Thursday, Vietnamese outlet Tuoi Tre cited reports from South Korean media, which stressed that the third-place match carries enormous symbolic weight for the Korean youth team. A loss to Vietnam would be a severe blow—described as an unprecedented setback in history—and could negatively affect both the team’s reputation and head coach Lee Min-sung’s future.

South Korean media also analyzed the broader implications of the third-place playoff, noting that while it has no impact on Olympic qualification, the result will directly influence seedings for the 2028 U23 Asian Cup.

Ahead of the semifinals, many Chinese fans had hoped South Korea could stop Japan and eliminate the defending champions early. That did not happen, and China now finds itself facing Japan in the final. At this stage, there is only one option left: go all in.

Compared with the semifinal, when Yang Haoyu was suspended, China now has a full squad available for the final—undoubtedly the best possible news. Head coach Antonio can deploy his strongest lineup and make tactical choices without restrictions.

However, on the eve of the final, China’s biggest weakness has been laid bare: attacking efficiency.

Japanese outlet Qoly previewed the final by pointing out that China, built around goalkeeper Li Hao—developed in Atlético Madrid’s youth system—have showcased a rock-solid defense with five consecutive clean sheets. Yet their attacking output remains an obvious concern. Three of China’s four goals in the tournament came against Vietnam, leading the report to suggest that if Japan score first, victory would likely be theirs. In effect, the analysis served as tactical advice for the Japanese side.

This assessment quickly sparked heated discussion among Chinese fans.

Some admitted bluntly that if Japan score first, China’s chances of winning would be slim. Others felt an early Japanese goal could result in a heavy defeat. There were also calmer voices, emphasizing that simply reaching the final is already a major success, and that the team should play freely without pressure.

More optimistic fans argued that even if China concede first, panic is unnecessary—maintain defensive discipline, make substitutions in the final 20 minutes, push for an equalizer, and aim to win in extra time or on penalties.

Many supporters highlighted that China’s greatest advantage right now is the complete absence of pressure. Few believed in the team before the tournament began, and reaching the final as a fourth-seeded side is already a historic achievement. All the pressure, they argue, lies squarely on Japan as the defending champions.

This final shapes up as a classic clash of spear versus shield. Japan have scored 12 goals, the most in the tournament, while China remain the only team yet to concede a single goal. That said, Japan’s defense is equally formidable, having allowed just one goal in five matches.

As a result, if China fall behind early and are forced into a reactive position, breaking down Japan’s defense will be extremely difficult—even with advantages in average height and physical duels.

Ahead of the final, the AFC launched an online fan poll on its official website. Sixty-six percent of voters believe Japan will lift the trophy, while the remaining 34 percent back China to claim the title.

Should China go on to win the championship, it would mark their first continental title in 22 years—the last coming at the U17 Asian Cup—and make them only the second team in history, after Iraq in 2013, to win the tournament as a fourth-seeded side.