Have You Noticed? The Housing Market Is Quietly Shifting

The housing market has shown several notable shifts recently, and data released by the National Bureau of Statistics highlights three key areas of change.

First, the decline in commercial housing sales is narrowing. Second, the amount of unsold housing inventory has been decreasing for eight consecutive months. Third, real estate developers are seeing a smaller drop in funds received. In simple terms, the major indicators are all falling at a slower pace and gradually improving.

Additional data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also points to meaningful market movement.

One of the biggest changes is the shift in transaction structure between new homes and second-hand homes. Overall, from January to October, total transactions of both new and existing homes nationwide dipped by only 1.9% year-on-year — a figure that becomes even more impressive when considering that last October witnessed an unusually strong “Silver October” outperforming “Golden September,” creating a high comparison base.

Against this backdrop, a slight year-on-year dip suggests that overall market demand remains stable.

Breaking the numbers down, new homes used to dominate transactions. Now, second-hand homes are taking a much larger share. From January to October, the nationwide contracted floor area of second-hand home transactions grew by 4.7%, with existing homes accounting for 45% of all transactions.

Looking at cities, many medium and large urban markets are becoming more active. Cities such as Shenzhen, Wuhan, Xiamen, Shenyang, Nanchang, Nanning, Guiyang, and Kunming all recorded year-on-year increases in total new and second-hand home transactions. In particular, the second-hand home markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanjing, Changzhou, Dongguan, and several other cities stood out, with contracted transaction areas rising more than 10% year-on-year.

Overall, despite some fluctuations, the real estate market continues to show signs of stabilization, and the effects of recent policies are becoming increasingly evident.