Dong Lu: Vietnam Are Not That Overwhelming — If China Lose, It Will Come Down to Two Factors

At 11:30 p.m. tomorrow, China’s U23 national team will face Vietnam U23 in a decisive semifinal clash, with a place in the final at stake. While much of the domestic media believes China are at a disadvantage, veteran football commentator Dong Lu has offered a more measured and confident assessment.

Vietnam have indeed impressed so far. They swept the group stage with three straight wins, scoring five goals and conceding just one, before edging past the UAE 3–2 in the quarterfinals. China’s path, by contrast, has been far more testing, finishing the group stage with one win and two draws and surviving the quarterfinals only through a penalty shootout after long spells under pressure.

Dong Lu acknowledged Vietnam’s strengths upfront. “Vietnamese players are agile and quick. You can see it in their sharp turns, sudden stops, and willingness to shoot from distance. Their No. 7 is a standout, and No. 11 also has real quality.”

However, he cautioned against overestimating the opposition. “Vietnam were pinned back by Saudi Arabia, which shows they’re not overwhelmingly strong. Against Saudi Arabia, they faced 18 shots, seven on target, and had only 40 percent possession. In many ways, their match profile is similar to China’s — solid defensive structure and low-block positioning.”

According to Dong Lu, the key difference lies in transition play. “Vietnam are better at converting defensive moments into deeper attacking threats. When we try to counter, our moves often break down around the 30-meter zone. Vietnam can at least turn those situations into something dangerous.”

Overall, Dong Lu expects a tight and delicate contest between two defense-oriented teams. “Both sides defend better than they attack. If China were to lose this match, it would likely be for two reasons: first, vulnerability on set pieces, especially second-ball situations; second, getting beaten in localized areas by feints and individual dribbling.”

In Dong Lu’s view, if China can manage these risks effectively, the semifinal remains very much within reach.