Broken-Contract Price Surge: Solar Module Market Hits a Frenzy

The solar module industry opened 2026 with an unexpected wave of price hikes. Multiple suppliers have announced price increases, causing delays in delivery, opportunistic pricing, and even contract breaches, leaving downstream buyers scrambling.

The surge is driven by two main factors: the impending cancellation of export tax rebates, prompting accelerated shipments, and skyrocketing raw material costs, especially silver and aluminum, pushing module costs higher.

01 Contract-Breaking Price Hikes

Recently, several distributed solar investors reported that their prepaid module orders were raised at the last minute. For example, contracts at 0.73 CNY/W were increased to 0.8 CNY/W. Trina Solar announced collective price increases across multiple products, with distributed module guidance now 0.85–0.89+ CNY/W.

This week, 12 module manufacturers raised prices, with some top-tier companies increasing prices twice within a week, surging 0.04–0.15 CNY/W. BC module prices rose to 0.76–0.96 CNY/W, and Longi Green Energy and Aiko increased quotes by 0.04–0.08 CNY/W.

Order delays, requests for price adjustments, and multiple hikes have disrupted installation schedules and distribution operations.

02 Driving Forces: Policy & Cost Pressure

Export Tax Rebate Cancellation: Starting April 2026, export VAT rebates for solar products will be phased out. Overseas buyers rushed shipments to avoid extra costs, tightening domestic supply.

Silver Price Surge: In 2025, silver spiked from 7,600 CNY/kg to 23,688 CNY/kg, increasing silver paste costs from 17% to 30% of module cost. Rising aluminum prices pushed its share to 12–15%, further raising module costs.

03 Massive Industry Shakeout Ahead

Overcapacity is a chronic issue: by 2025, polysilicon capacity covered more than twice global demand, and module capacity reached 1,300 GW while global demand was below 600 GW. New capacity additions exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance.

In 2026, with export rebates canceled and raw material costs surging, profits will shrink further. Small and mid-sized companies face cash-flow risks, triggering a new round of market consolidation. Already, 20+ firms have exited solar, 40+ have entered bankruptcy restructuring, and more underperformers are expected to be eliminated.

04 Conclusion

While painful in the short term, this shakeout is crucial for the industry’s long-term health. Low-efficiency capacity may be cut by 30%, with resources concentrating among leading players. Companies with vertical integration, advanced technologies (like N-type TOPCon and perovskite), and global presence are set to capture 80%+ of market share. Investors should focus on financially stable, technologically advanced, globally positioned firms, avoiding high-debt, non-competitive SMEs.