Why Are Ternary Lithium Battery Vehicles Becoming Scarce with Less Than 20% Market Share?

Data from automotive blogger “嗨大星_ECC” shows that from 2021 to 2025, China’s EV battery market underwent major changes:

• LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries rose from 51.7% to 81.2% market share
• Ternary lithium batteries fell from 48.1% to 18.7%

Globally, the trend is similar: in H1 2025, total EV battery installations reached 465.9 GWh, with LFP accounting for 256.6 GWh (55.1%, +64% YoY).

Technological Advances

Ternary lithium batteries historically offer high energy density, but LFP is catching up:

• BYD Blade Battery: long-cell + flat design, 50% higher volumetric utilization
• CATL Shenxing Ultra-Fast Battery: new cathode + fast-ion ring + highly conductive electrolyte, 10-min charge, 400 km range
• Gotion JTM Tech: integrated cells into pack, 75% volume utilization
• SVOLT Short Blade: L-shaped tabs improve current path, enabling high-rate charge/discharge

CATL’s 4th-generation LFP leads in energy density, lifespan, and power; 5th generation is already mass-produced.

Market Forces

Cost and safety drive LFP adoption:

• Cost: LFP 350–450 RMB/kWh vs ternary 500–600 RMB/kWh
• Material stability: cobalt/nickel-free, less price fluctuation
• Safety: decomposition temperature 800°C, far above ternary chemistry

Geely’s Shendun Jinbrick battery passed “full vehicle + pack” extreme tests with zero fire or explosion.

The Future of Ternary Lithium

Ternary lithium batteries are shifting strategically:

• Solid-state and semi-solid batteries: high-nickel ternary + solid electrolyte, energy density 360–400Wh/kg
• Emerging markets: humanoid robots and eVTOLs need lightweight, high-density energy solutions
• Overseas market: European premium EVs still use high-nickel ternary batteries, market share >50%

Conclusion: The EV battery market is evolving into a layered, diversified ecosystem. LFP thrives due to cost, safety, and tech advances, while ternary batteries maintain a niche in high-end and emerging sectors.