Trade Tensions Ease? New Survey Shows CEOs Less Worried About U.S. Recession

A recent survey by Chief Executive Group found that fewer than 30% of over 270 U.S. CEOs now expect a recession in the next six months—down from 46% in May and 62% in April. More than 40% even predict economic growth, nearly doubling the figure from April.

While business confidence improves, many companies are cautious, citing ongoing uncertainty over Trump’s final trade policy direction. Currently, only a trade deal with the UK has been concluded.

Consumer sentiment had plunged to near-record lows due to tariff pressure, but the New York Fed reported this week that inflation fears have subsided slightly after Trump withdrew his most aggressive trade threats.

Retail leaders echo this optimism. Home Depot CEO Edward Decker noted: “Back in April, we thought a recession was almost certain. But now, with markets rebounding, expectations have significantly improved.”

Editorial Insight:

Despite the optimism, true recovery depends on three factors:

1. Clear policy signals
2. Sustained consumer confidence
3. Consistent trade partnerships

The worst may be over, but real stability has yet to be firmly established.