TikTok’s Future in the U.S. Hangs in the Balance: Facing E-Commerce Pressures and Regulatory Uncertainty

TikTok’s “Big and Unbreakable” Strategy Faces U.S. Challenge

In May, TikTok surpassed 1 billion overseas monthly active users, signaling rapid global expansion. The platform has embraced a strategy of growing massive in scale and hard to dismantle—gaining user loyalty to remain indispensable, while minimizing regulatory friction and pushing monetization.

TikTok Shop Grows Rapidly, But Tariffs Bite

Launched in late 2023, TikTok Shop quickly surpassed Amazon and Temu in GMV in the UK within just 13 months. With a 200% growth target set for the U.S. market in 2025, rising tariffs have instead disrupted its momentum. Sellers report higher costs, falling traffic, and system glitches, frustrating both creators and brands.

Ban or Sale: A Ticking Clock

Former President Donald Trump recently reiterated that if TikTok’s parent company fails to divest its U.S. assets by June 19, a ban may proceed—or the deadline could be extended again. Though the company has temporarily escaped shutdown, the core issue remains unresolved: surrender control or face forced divestment.

A Wake-Up Call for Chinese Firms Going Global

Professor Nie Huihua from Renmin University warns that companies like TikTok must now prioritize geopolitical strategy. A likely outcome, he says, is a “ZTE-style trust arrangement” where operational control is handed over while equity remains largely intact—preserving face on both sides.

To avoid similar risks, other Chinese companies such as Kuaishou and Mixue Ice Cream are targeting markets beyond the U.S.—from Brazil to Saudi Arabia—hedging against Western political unpredictability.