China’s Wealthiest: High-Stakes Bets and Lavish Banquets

By Zhang Yanan | Source: Economic Observer

Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com have each poured billions—collectively more than 100 billion yuan—into the instant retail battlefield. While the industry’s “new ranking order” has yet to emerge, shopping centers across China can already smell the smoke of war.

Back in 2012, Wang Jianlin and Jack Ma made a famous bet: would e-commerce account for more than 50% of China’s retail market in a decade?

The National Bureau of Statistics later gave the verdict: by 2022, online sales of physical goods had reached 12 trillion yuan, representing 27% of total retail. On paper, Jack Ma lost the bet. But in reality, traditional offline players like Wang Jianlin’s Wanda Group had little sense of victory, having been forced into overdrive to fend off relentless online competition.

That 2012 wager left its mark, but the “dinner table announcements” of 2025 may prove even more consequential.

In 2025, JD.com’s Liu Qiangdong sat down with Meituan’s Wang Xing over dinner and declared his company’s entry into instant retail. Not long after, Alibaba also jumped in with massive investment. Despite two rounds of regulatory scrutiny, the battle rages on. And while billions have already been committed, the ultimate winners remain uncertain—though shopping malls are already feeling the impact.

A leading mall operator managing around 100 shopping centers nationwide noted a sharp change in recent months. The logic is simple: most instant retail subsidies flow into food and beverages. For consumers not seeking the full “wok hei” dining experience, it’s easy to grab discounts online rather than head out to eat—especially in the sweltering summer heat.

For malls, this is no small matter. Dining typically accounts for half of mall floor space and serves as a key driver of foot traffic. Any shifts in consumer dining habits ripple quickly through the ecosystem. Ironically, expanding food and beverage offerings was the industry’s collective survival strategy after the 2012 e-commerce shock.

That first wave of disruption hit hardest in standardized retail goods, forcing department stores and supermarkets to close or overhaul. In response, malls pivoted—boosting dining and experiential spaces while compressing retail to roughly 30%. Every square meter became a calculation: B1 (basements) and upper floors went to an ever-rotating cast of restaurants, while middle floors balanced fashion, kids’ wear, and sports with cafés and gadget shops. The once-glorious first floors, once dominated by ZARA and H&M, have since been overtaken by cosmetics, trendy collectibles, and even electric vehicle showrooms—all supported by atriums hosting buzzy IP events.

Brand churn has become the norm, with replacement rates around 30%—meaning a mall effectively refreshes its lineup every three years. Today, observers point to two clear trends: young shoppers often stick to B1, while first floors are anchored by four “pillars”—trendy collectibles, EVs, outdoor brands, and tea shops.

B1 may thrive on high-frequency, low-value purchases, while first-floor anchors emphasize experience over pure retail. But higher floors, once rejuvenated with restaurants, are now losing pull. Getting consumers to visit specifically for a single dining option is increasingly difficult. The rise of instant retail only accelerates this shift.

This leaves malls with a pressing question: if dining no longer delivers the same experiential punch, what new concepts can absorb both the space and consumer interest? There is no consensus yet.

Still, a trend is emerging: interest-based experiences and niche cultural consumption are finding a foothold. From outdoor sports and cycling, to subcultures like Hanfu, Lolita, and JK fashion, anime merchandise, and conventions, to comedy shows, small theaters, and the booming urban concert scene—these are activities that malls can host, monetize, and uniquely deliver.

And crucially, they are experiences that even Liu Qiangdong, Wang Xing, and Jack Ma—despite their billions—cannot replicate or steal away online.