Singapore’s Core Inflation Eases to 1.2% in November

(Singapore, 24th) Singapore’s inflation has been stabilising, helped by softer inflation in retail and other goods, alongside a deeper decline in electricity and gas prices. Core inflation held steady at 1.2% in November—unchanged from October and below economists’ expectations.

Economists said inflation has returned to a more desirable and stable range compared with the sharp price surge during the pandemic, though it remains above the mid-year lows. A resilient labour market may continue to support consumer demand, potentially keeping some upward pressure on prices.

A CPI report released on Tuesday (23rd) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) showed that headline inflation in November—also 1.2% year-on-year—was likewise unchanged. (In the article’s framing, this measure includes accommodation and private transport.)

Policy seen on hold in January

Core inflation is MAS’ key price gauge and an important input for monetary policy decisions. OCBC’s chief economist Selena Ling said MAS is unlikely to adjust policy in January as long as core inflation stays within a “comfort zone” of 0.5% to 1.5%, barring fresh shocks such as new tariff moves (for example, punitive tariffs on pharmaceuticals or semiconductors) or a further escalation in US–China tensions.

Bloomberg economist Tamara Mast Henderson shared a similar view, adding that if global tariff conditions worsen materially, MAS could consider easing around mid-2026.

Month-on-month: core cools slightly

Compared with October, core prices dipped 0.1% month-on-month in November, while headline prices rose 0.2%. Ling noted that higher healthcare, transport and education costs were key drivers of headline inflation, while softer retail goods inflation and falling electricity and gas prices helped offset services inflation, leading to a slight cooling in core inflation.

Maybank economist Lee Shun Rong cited lower global oil prices, subdued import costs and intense competition in retail and food & beverage as additional disinflationary forces. He pointed to data showing clothing and footwear prices fell 0.5% year-on-year in November and that food services inflation eased. On healthcare costs, he said rising medical expenses were increasingly passed through to consumers, contributing to a 16.1% year-on-year jump in health insurance prices.

Uncertainty persists

Authorities expect import costs to keep easing in the coming months, though at a slower pace. MAS reiterated that inflation risks remain, including geopolitical developments that could trigger supply shocks and sudden spikes in certain import costs. Meanwhile, as temporary administrative factors that have restrained inflation fade and unit labour costs rise, price pressures could re-emerge in the quarters ahead.