Two major developments this weekend could be pivotal for how China’s A-share market kicks off in February.

During the most recent trading week (January 26–30), China’s A-share market moved in a high-volume, volatile range. Average daily turnover exceeded RMB 3 trillion. Against the backdrop of continued net outflows from large institutional funds, major indices experienced sharp intraday sell-offs on both Tuesday and Friday. Encouragingly, much of the lost ground was recovered by the close on each occasion, leaving behind clear V-shaped rebound patterns on the charts.

This raises a key question: what forces were behind these two V-shaped reversals?

Looking first at Tuesday’s market action, two factors stood out. On one hand, non-ferrous metals led by gold remained notably strong, helping to stabilize the broader market. On the other hand, core technology themes—including CPO, semiconductors, and robotics—gained momentum early and moved in sync, providing a meaningful boost to market sentiment.

Friday’s dynamics were somewhat different. Gold and non-ferrous metals suddenly sold off, triggering a wave of risk-off behavior and a rapid index decline. This time, in addition to technology once again stepping in to support the market, the agriculture sector also surged into focus. Several stocks hit their daily limit or rose more than 10 percent, likely driven by price increase expectations and anticipation surrounding the annual “No. 1 Central Document.”

It is also worth reiterating an observation highlighted in previous commentaries: following the sharp declines on Tuesday and Friday, large institutional capital did not appear to continue aggressive selling in broad-based ETFs. Instead, their behavior resembled a pattern of “holding back during declines and stepping in during rebounds,” which likely contributed to the market’s ability to stabilize and recover.

With last week’s market performance briefly reviewed, attention now turns to two major developments over the weekend—both of which could prove critical for the way A-shares begin trading in February.

An “Epic Crash”: CME Raises Margin Requirements for Gold and Silver Futures

From Friday into the weekend, the sharp plunge in gold and silver prices dominated discussions across social media platforms.

After surging strongly since the start of the year, precious metals experienced a sudden and dramatic sell-off. As of the January 31 close, spot gold fell to USD 4,865.35 per ounce, down 9.45 percent, marking its largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years. Other precious metals were hit even harder. Silver plunged 26.77 percent to USD 84.7 per ounce, its steepest drop since early 1980. Platinum fell by roughly 18 percent, while palladium dropped around 15 percent.

Amid this sharp decline, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced on Friday local time that it would raise margin requirements for COMEX gold and silver futures. According to the statement, margin requirements for non–high-risk accounts trading gold futures will rise from 6 percent to 8 percent of contract value, while high-risk accounts will see margins increase from 6.6 percent to 8.8 percent. For silver futures, margins will rise from 11 percent to 15 percent for non–high-risk accounts, and from 12.1 percent to 16.5 percent for high-risk accounts. Margin requirements for platinum and palladium futures will also be increased. These changes will take effect after the market close next Monday.

Notably, on January 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had already raised margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium futures.

From a trading perspective, Huatai Fund noted that implied volatility in gold surged sharply in January, signaling rising risk accumulation. In a high-volatility environment, market sentiment can easily become amplified and irrational. With gold having gained as much as 20 percent during the month, profit-taking pressure intensified significantly.

Some market institutions pointed out that gold’s volatility has reached above the 90th percentile since 2008, suggesting elevated risks of short-term consolidation and correction. Zhang Juntao, Senior Analyst for FX and Commodities at Industrial Securities Research, commented that the recent pullback appears to be a technical adjustment following an overbought phase, potentially ushering in a correction cycle lasting three to six months.

As for the impact of falling gold and silver prices on A-shares, analysts believe that speculative capital and short-term funds that had previously crowded into precious metals are likely to exit in batches. This capital may rotate toward areas benefiting from lower costs, undervalued defensive sectors, and high-growth industries with clearer earnings visibility—driving a shift in market style from “commodity safe havens” toward “manufacturing profitability and earnings certainty.”

For mining stocks tied closely to gold and silver prices, which already experienced sharp corrections on Friday, analysts caution that earnings expectations and valuation frameworks may need to be reassessed. Given their strong correlation with metal prices and substantial prior gains, the short-term downtrend may be difficult to reverse quickly. A cautious approach—prioritizing risk control and avoiding premature bottom-fishing—is advised.

SpaceX Applies to Deploy One Million Satellites

The commercial space sector also received a major catalyst over the weekend.

According to reports cited by Reference News from PC Magazine on January 31, Elon Musk’s SpaceX has applied to launch up to one million satellites to build an orbital data center network encircling the Earth.

On January 30, SpaceX submitted its application to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, describing the project as “a satellite constellation with unprecedented computing power capable of supporting advanced artificial intelligence models and related applications.”

The scale of the proposal is staggering, far exceeding the size of SpaceX’s existing Starlink constellation, which currently consists of more than 9,600 satellites in orbit. Musk himself reposted reports on platform X discussing SpaceX’s plan to deploy up to one million satellites.

A research report from GF Securities noted that the acceleration of low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation construction, combined with competition for spectrum and orbital resources, is driving an increasingly rapid launch cadence. The year 2026 is expected to mark a turning point for reusable rockets in China, with multiple commercial and state-backed launch vehicles set to attempt recovery technologies. This trend is likely to sustain high prosperity across the entire industry chain.

A recent report from Soochow Securities further emphasized that the underlying logic of the commercial space industry is undergoing a fundamental shift, positioning it as a core market theme for 2026.

Domestically, 2026 is expected to see a powerful convergence of technological maturity, order releases, and capital valuation premiums. As reusable rockets such as Long March 10A and Zhuque-3 Yao-2 enter intensive first-flight phases, and with SpaceX’s Starship V3 facing test-flight pressure in the first quarter of 2026, China’s commercial space sector is being pushed onto a fast track of accelerated development, reinforcing its status as a nationally strategic emerging industry.

Internationally, the United States has completed a transition from legal frameworks to physical deployment. From the 2015 U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act to the executive order signed at the end of 2025 aimed at “ensuring U.S. space superiority,” policy momentum has been consistent. In early 2026, preparations for the Artemis II crewed lunar flyby mission are in full swing, formally opening the era of lunar outpost construction and lunar nuclear reactor infrastructure. This infrastructure-driven approach to “lunar resource extraction” is accelerating global competition in deep-space asset deployment.

In parallel, global policy competition and capital-driven tailwinds are converging. The year 2026 is expected to bring a dense series of high-impact catalysts for the commercial space industry. On the domestic front, policy support has elevated commercial space to a strategic level comparable to semiconductors, with the second quarter of 2026 potentially seeing “special fast-track” IPO approvals for rocket companies such as LandSpace and CAS Space. Overseas, if SpaceX successfully lists in the third quarter of 2026, a trillion-dollar valuation benchmark could significantly lift the valuation ceiling across the global industry chain.

Key Events to Watch Next Week

Monday, February 2
China’s 2026 Spring Festival travel season officially begins, running from February 2 to March 13, lasting 40 days.
AWE Asia 2026 (Asian Virtual Reality and XR Industry Exhibition) will be held in Singapore from February 2 to 4.

Tuesday, February 3
The 2026 Brain–Computer Interface Developers Conference will take place in Tianjin from February 3 to 4.
The 10th Singapore Airshow and Defence Exhibition will be held from February 3 to 8.

Wednesday, February 4
Cisco’s 2026 Artificial Intelligence Conference will be held in San Francisco (early morning Beijing time) and livestreamed globally.

Thursday, February 5
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association will host a seminar in Beijing reviewing industry developments in 2025 and outlining the outlook for 2026.

Friday, February 6
The United States will release January unemployment data and seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll figures.