Cambricon Loses RMB 70 Billion in Market Value in Just Half a Day — What Went Wrong?

On February 3, the capital market hit a rare moment of uncertainty. By the midday break, shares of domestic chipmaker Cambricon were down 12.88%, with its market value sliding from roughly RMB 530 billion to RMB 456.3 billion—more than RMB 70 billion wiped out in just half a day.

A little-known market rumor appeared to be the trigger: claims that Cambricon had privately guided 2026 revenue at only RMB 20 billion, far below the market’s prevailing expectations of RMB 30–50 billion.

The timing intensified the shock. Just days earlier, Cambricon had released what many viewed as its strongest earnings guidance on record, leaving investors unprepared for such a sudden reversal.

As the selloff accelerated, Cambricon moved unusually fast to issue a stern clarification. In a statement published via its official WeChat account, the company said it had “not organized any recent small-scale meetings” and had “not provided any annual or quarterly revenue guidance data.”

A Sudden Plunge

On the morning of February 3, Cambricon opened lower and quickly extended its declines as market nerves spread. During the session, the stock broke below the psychological RMB 1,200 and RMB 1,100 levels in rapid succession.

By midday, the stock was down 12.88%, its market cap falling back to around RMB 450 billion.

After the company released its 2025 earnings preview late last Friday, the share price had already started slipping on Monday—an early sign that sentiment was shifting.

Meanwhile, a screenshot began circulating among investors, alleging that Cambricon had projected RMB 20 billion in revenue for 2026 in a small-circle exchange. For a company whose revenue only recently surpassed RMB 6 billion, such a figure—while still implying growth—would suggest a materially slower trajectory than many had priced in.

At noon on February 3, Cambricon publicly rejected the claim, reiterating that the rumored guidance did not come from the company.

A representative from the company’s board secretary office also responded, saying they were not aware of any specific cause behind the price swing and emphasized that many rumors in the market were simply false.

Cambricon also highlighted that secondary-market flows and sentiment can be highly volatile, urging investors to stay rational.

Ripple Effects Across the Domestic AI Chip Sector

In the eyes of many market participants, the selloff didn’t stop with Cambricon—it spilled into the broader domestic AI chip theme. During trading, Moore Threads fell more than 4%, Hygon Information dropped over 2%, and MetaX was down more than 5%.

Zooming out, the domestic AI chip industry is entering a pivotal phase: it remains a golden period for growth, but it is also the starting line for a far more intense competitive cycle.

Beyond the leading player that holds a large share of the market, the rest is being split among more than 10 companies, including Hygon Information, Baidu Kunlunxin, Cambricon, Moore Threads, and others.

At the same time, major tech groups are accelerating in-house AI chip development and pushing products toward commercialization. Market chatter has also centered on Alibaba’s chip arm, Pingtouge, and its newly surfaced “Zhenwu” line—reports claim the Zhenwu 810E’s performance could exceed Nvidia’s A800 and many mainstream domestic GPUs, while approaching Nvidia’s H20, with use cases spanning AI training, inference, and autonomous driving. With Alibaba also building ecosystem advantages across cloud, foundation models, and chips, competition is widely expected to intensify.

As more self-developed chip businesses move toward listing, the era of “scarce” AI-chip concept stocks in public markets may also be nearing its end.

Fresh Off Its Best Earnings Preview Yet

Just four days before the plunge, Cambricon released its 2025 annual earnings preview. The company projected full-year revenue of RMB 6–7 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02%.

Even more striking, Cambricon forecast net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.85–2.15 billion, compared with a loss of RMB 452 million in 2024—marking a turnaround into profitability.

In its announcement, the company attributed the surge to rising computing demand across the AI industry, improving product competitiveness, and ongoing market expansion.

That said, there were signs of cooling in the fourth quarter. According to Cambricon’s 2025 third-quarter report, revenue for the first three quarters totaled RMB 4.607 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 1.605 billion.

This implies Q4 revenue of roughly RMB 1.393–2.393 billion and Q4 net profit of RMB 245–545 million.

Even at the high end, the quarter-on-quarter revenue increase would be relatively limited. And the upper end of Q4 profit guidance (RMB 545 million) would still be slightly below Q3’s RMB 567 million—suggesting momentum may have moderated.

Valuation Logic Under Reassessment

Other domestic AI chip companies have also recently released earnings previews. Moore Threads projected 2025 revenue of RMB 1.45–1.52 billion, up 230.7% to 246.67% year-on-year. MetaX projected RMB 1.6–1.7 billion, representing growth of 115.32% to 128.78%.

Even so, the market remains cautious about continued losses. MetaX, for example, forecast a 2025 loss of RMB 650–798 million, with indications that its Q4 loss may have approached—or even exceeded—the combined loss of the first three quarters.

“Investors should improve their ability to distinguish information,” Cambricon said in its response, reflecting a market that is increasingly rethinking how to value AI chip companies.

Data cited in the market shows margin financing may also be amplifying volatility. As of February 2, the ratio of margin financing balance to free-float market cap was reported at 9.55% for MetaX, 8.26% for Moore Threads, and 2.89% for Cambricon—positions that can accelerate declines when sentiment turns.

One question is now moving to the forefront: as more than 10 AI chip companies head into public markets, how many will ultimately emerge as long-term winners? Will a meaningful portion be eliminated, with market values suffering cliff-like drops?

A Bounce, but the Pressure Remains

By the time of writing, Cambricon’s shares had begun to rebound from intraday lows, ultimately closing down 9.18%.

In the domestic AI chip arena, the number of players is rising fast—but the market’s tolerance for trial and error, and the time available to prove commercial success, are shrinking just as quickly. The race is still on.