China’s GDP Grew 5.2% in the First Three Quarters — Experts Say “Timely Policy Boosts” Will Support the Year-End Target

China’s economic performance in the first three quarters of 2025 remains steady and resilient. According to data released on October 20, the country’s GDP reached RMB 101.5 trillion, up 5.2% year-on-year. While growth slightly eased in Q3 (4.8%), the overall pace remains solid — outpacing most major economies.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) noted that challenges such as global uncertainty and domestic structural adjustments persist, but emphasized that these are “growing pains during transformation,” not fundamental weaknesses.

Consumption Remains the Driving Force

Consumer spending continues to play a major role in economic momentum. In the first three quarters, final consumption contributed 53.5% to GDP growth — a notable 9-point increase from last year. Policies like trade-in incentives and long-term special government bonds have fueled steady growth in auto, home appliance, and furniture sales.

By mid-September, more than 8.3 million car trade-in applications were filed nationwide, reflecting a strong recovery in consumer confidence.

Exports Defy Expectations

Despite global headwinds, China’s exports surged 8% in September, hitting a new yearly high. The manufacturing sector continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and competitiveness.

Fixed Investment Still Under Pressure

Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell 0.5% year-on-year — the first decline this year. Real estate investment dropped sharply, while high-tech industries such as information services (+33.1%) and aerospace manufacturing (+20.6%) remain bright spots.

Outlook: Strong Policy Support Ahead

Experts believe achieving the around 5% annual growth target remains achievable. As the Fourth Plenary Session unfolds, policymakers are expected to further strengthen macro measures, enhance infrastructure investment, and accelerate new growth engines driven by innovation and green development.

“New quality productive forces are taking shape — China’s economy is shifting gears toward high-quality growth,”
said an NBS spokesperson.